Arthritis is an umbrella term that comprises over 100 different diseases that can affect people of all ages. While all arthritis conditions affect the joints, some types of arthritis also affect other parts of the body such as the skin, eyes and other organs. Importantly, arthritis is not just a condition of older age — it can affect babies, children, adolescents and younger as well as older adults. Arthritis is incredibly common — National Health Survey data indicate that around 15% of Australians are currently living with a form of arthritis — and most of us will know a friend, family member or colleague who has the condition, even if the symptoms are not always visible.
Arthritis is an umbrella term that comprises over 100 different diseases that can affect people of all ages. While all arthritis conditions affect the joints, some types of arthritis also affect other parts of the body such as the skin, eyes and other organs. Importantly, arthritis is not just a condition of older age — it can affect babies, children, adolescents and younger as well as older adults. Arthritis is incredibly common — National Health Survey data indicate that around 15% of Australians are currently living with a form of arthritis — and most of us will know a friend, family member or colleague who has the condition, even if the symptoms are not always visible.
How many Australians are expected to be living with arthritis?
Based purely on expected population growth and ageing, our new modelling suggests that 5.39 million Australians will be living with arthritis by 2040. That’s an additional 1.28 million people with arthritis (or a 31% increase) relative to 2025 numbers. A high population growth scenario would put even greater strain on our health care system, with 5.56 million Australians forecast to have arthritis under this scenario.
In all projection scenarios that we examined, the highest burden of arthritis is expected to be borne by women. For osteoarthritis, the most common form of arthritis and the most common indication for hip, knee and shoulder replacement surgery, we have forecast that 3.11 million Australians will have the condition in 2040.
Looking at the age groups most affected, older adults will continue to form a major part of the osteoarthritis population but notably as our population grows, people of working age (the current millennials) will also be greatly impacted. Over 1.03 million people between the ages of 45 and 64 years are forecast to have osteoarthritis in 2040, with implications for work productivity and workforce participation. Notably, our modelling is conservative and does not incorporate any changes in rates of obesity or joint injury, both known contributors to the development of knee osteoarthritis.
Article Authors:
Professor Ilana Ackerman is a musculoskeletal epidemiologist and physiotherapist. She is Deputy Director of the Musculoskeletal Health Unit in the School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine at Monash University.
Professor Rachelle Buchbinder is a rheumatologist and clinical epidemiologist. She heads the Musculoskeletal Health and Wiser Health Care Units in the School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine at Monash University and is the current Chair of the Australia and New Zealand Musculoskeletal (ANZMUSC) Clinical Trial Network Centre of Research Excellence Executive Committee.
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